Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints29
- Desmond BaneAssists14
- Santi AldamaRebounds8
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints21
- Harrison BarnesAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–112
- Q421.0Charles Bassey lost ball turnover (Jake LaRavia steals)140–112
- Q429.2shot clock turnover140–112
- Q454.0Zach Collins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)140–112
- Q41:03Charles Bassey defensive rebound140–109
- Q41:06Jay Huff misses free throw 1 of 1140–109
- Q41:06Sandro Mamukelashvili shooting foul140–109
- Q41:06Jay Huff makes dunk (Jaylen Wells assists)140–109
- Q41:21Sandro Mamukelashvili makes two point shot138–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:31Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 67 – 67 SA · MEM 39% → 48% +9MEM 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q310:11Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 70 – 67 SA · MEM 48% → 57% +9MEM 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q39:37Santi Aldama makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 73 – 68 SA · MEM 54% → 63% +9MEM 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q36:20Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)MEM 79 – 76 SA · SA 32% → 42% +10SA 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q32:21Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 93 – 86 SA · MEM 63% → 73% +10MEM 63% → 73%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SA -1.5
- ML MEM +105 / SA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1
- SA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- SA: Elo 45.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -114
- MEM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 117.5 – 119.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +44 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +29 Elo | MEM 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.0 | Points scored | 111.716th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 112.013th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.8 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 110.319th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 110.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.4 | Pace | 100.816th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 12–916th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–14 | 20–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–9 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–14 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 4–1 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.