Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints21
- Ja MorantAssists12
- Santi AldamaRebounds10
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints26
- Chris PaulAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–115
- Q422.2Chris Paul makes layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)129–115
- Q429.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2129–113
- Q429.1Jake LaRavia enters the game for Luke Kennard128–113
- Q429.1Jaylen Wells enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.128–113
- Q429.1Jay Huff enters the game for Ja Morant128–113
- Q429.1Scotty Pippen Jr. enters the game for Santi Aldama128–113
- Q429.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2128–113
- Q429.1Devin Vassell shooting foul127–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:38Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 82 – 82 SA · MEM 43% → 54% +11MEM 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q33:14Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Clarke assists)MEM 85 – 82 SA · MEM 54% → 64% +11MEM 54% → 64%+11 pts
- Q45:19Stephon Castle makes 1-foot dunk (Victor Wembanyama assists)MEM 109 – 108 SA · SA 30% → 42% +12SA 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q44:50Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layupMEM 111 – 108 SA · MEM 58% → 71% +12MEM 58% → 71%+12 pts
- Q44:24Desmond Bane makes two point shotMEM 113 – 108 SA · MEM 71% → 82% +10MEM 71% → 82%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -2.5
- ML MEM -140 / SA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- MEM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MEM: Elo 58.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MEM -128
- SA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 121.0 – 118.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +76 | +49 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +58 Elo | MEM 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.9 | Points scored | 111.716th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 111.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 110.318th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 110.212th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.5 | Pace | 100.716th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 12–815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–14 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–14 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–1 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.