Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints30
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints22
- Duncan RobinsonAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–113
- Q414.2shot clock turnover133–113
- Q439.1Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)133–113
- Q449.0Julian Strawther makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (PJ Hall assists)133–110
- Q41:02Nuggets defensive team rebound130–110
- Q41:02Kel'el Ware misses 25-foot three point jumper130–110
- Q41:12Hunter Tyson makes 25-foot three pointer130–110
- Q41:17Keshad Johnson personal foul127–110
- Q41:31Terry Rozier makes two point shot127–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:22Jamal Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 3 – 2 MIA · DEN 55% → 61% +6DEN 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q211:45Julian Strawther makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 33 – 24 MIA · DEN 71% → 77% +6DEN 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q23:26Tyler Herro makes 22-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)DEN 53 – 45 MIA · MIA 18% → 23% +6MIA 18% → 23%+6 pts
- Q23:16Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 56 – 45 MIA · DEN 77% → 82% +6DEN 77% → 82%+6 pts
- Q34.0Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 98 – 86 MIA · DEN 85% → 91% +6DEN 85% → 91%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.5% of 437 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML DEN -160 / MIA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 63.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 116.5 – 113.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +17 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −36 | DEN crossed 2 time zones and MIA crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +94 Elo | DEN 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.0 | Points scored | 110.721st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 109.57th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +1.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 111.414th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 110.111th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.4 | Pace | 98.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 10–716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–21 | 16–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–16 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–0 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.