Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints26
- Tristan da SilvaAssists4
- Paolo BancheroRebounds12
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints19
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–109
- Q47.2Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trevelin Queen assists)93–109
- Q419.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defensive rebound90–109
- Q421.1Garrett Temple misses layup90–109
- Q434.1Caleb Houstan makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot90–109
- Q439.2Caleb Houstan defensive rebound87–109
- Q443.1A.J. Lawson misses free throw 1 of 187–109
- Q443.1Anthony Black shooting foul87–109
- Q443.1A.J. Lawson makes two point shot (Ulrich Chomche assists)87–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:32RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)ORL 52 – 51 TOR · TOR 37% → 46% +9TOR 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q38:04Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 59 – 55 TOR · ORL 54% → 63% +9ORL 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q37:49Davion Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)ORL 59 – 58 TOR · TOR 37% → 46% +9TOR 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q36:26Gradey Dick makes 22-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)ORL 59 – 63 TOR · TOR 53% → 63% +10TOR 53% → 63%+10 pts
- Q33:59Jamal Shead makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)ORL 63 – 70 TOR · TOR 64% → 73% +10TOR 64% → 73%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML ORL -115 / TOR -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- ORL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 52.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 107.5 – 106.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1369 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | +9 | ORL: Missing Cole Anthony −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +14 Elo | ORL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.2 | Points scored | 111.020th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.3 | Points allowed | 118.527th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −7.527th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.2 | Offense rating | 108.723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.3 | Defense rating | 116.128th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 101.29th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 19th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 9–1323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−71 Elo- Cole Anthony illness−12 Elo
Raptors
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–20 | 24–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–7 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–13 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–0 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.