Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints21
- RJ BarrettAssists10
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–130
- Q413.0shot clock turnover112–130
- Q433.1Chris Livingston defensive rebound112–130
- Q437.1Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 2 of 2112–130
- Q437.1Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 1 of 2112–130
- Q437.1Ryan Rollins shooting foul111–130
- Q454.0Ryan Rollins makes 16-foot pullup jump shot111–130
- Q41:05Garrett Temple makes free throw 2 of 2111–128
- Q41:05Stanley Umude enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo110–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:17Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)TOR 0 – 6 MIL · MIL 85% → 89% +3MIL 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q16:42RJ Barrett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)TOR 8 – 16 MIL · TOR 7% → 10% +3TOR 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q15:44Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three pointer (Brook Lopez assists)TOR 10 – 19 MIL · MIL 88% → 91% +3MIL 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q38:10Kelly Olynyk makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)TOR 71 – 83 MIL · TOR 4% → 6% +2TOR 4% → 6%+2 pts
- Q49:25Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)TOR 97 – 110 MIL · MIL 94% → 97% +3MIL 94% → 97%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -10.5
- ML TOR +425 / MIL -600
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -9
- MIL 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 81.3%, market 81.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -450
- TOR +450 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.5 – 122.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +52 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +255 Elo | MIL 81.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 79.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 81.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 113.013th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 110.38th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +2.610th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 111.813th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 109.28th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.718th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–18 | Road vs home | 13–79th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–17 | 18–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–3 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.