Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints20
- Jayson TatumAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds10
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints22
- Scottie BarnesAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–110
- Q43.1Scottie Barnes out of bounds lost ball turnover97–110
- Q422.1Sam Hauser makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot97–110
- Q441.1Scottie Barnes makes 7-foot two point shot94–110
- Q41:00Scottie Barnes defensive rebound94–108
- Q41:03Jaden Springer misses free throw 2 of 294–108
- Q41:03Celtics offensive team rebound94–108
- Q41:03Jaden Springer misses free throw 1 of 294–108
- Q41:03Gradey Dick shooting foul94–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:01Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 72 – 77 TOR · BOS 51% → 61% +10BOS 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q34:11Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 75 – 79 TOR · BOS 53% → 64% +10BOS 53% → 64%+10 pts
- Q33:53Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (RJ Barrett assists)BOS 75 – 82 TOR · TOR 37% → 47% +11TOR 37% → 47%+11 pts
- Q410:59Jaylen Brown makes tip shotBOS 84 – 90 TOR · BOS 39% → 47% +9BOS 39% → 47%+9 pts
- Q410:42Bruce Brown makes layup (Kelly Olynyk assists)BOS 84 – 92 TOR · TOR 53% → 62% +9TOR 53% → 62%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -13.5
- ML BOS -1400 / TOR +750
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 82.4%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -793
- TOR +793 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.5 – 108.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1632 | 1348 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | 0 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +268 Elo | BOS 82.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 87.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 86.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 88.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 111.019th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.7 | Points allowed | 118.827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.3 | Margin | −7.827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 108.524th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 116.128th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.48th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3014–4 | Road vs home | 8–1323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–23 | 23–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–0 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.