Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints24
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Chris BoucherRebounds12
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints40
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–132
- Q410.1Scottie Barnes makes driving dunk (Immanuel Quickley assists)126–132
- Q413.1Raptors Full timeout124–132
- Q413.1Jarrett Allen makes free throw 2 of 2124–132
- Q413.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound124–131
- Q413.1Jarrett Allen misses free throw 1 of 2124–131
- Q413.1Jakob Poeltl personal take foul124–131
- Q413.1Jarrett Allen defensive rebound124–131
- Q415.0Gradey Dick misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot124–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:18Immanuel Quickley makes 23-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 108 – 103 CLE · TOR 39% → 52% +13TOR 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q410:04Evan Mobley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)TOR 108 – 106 CLE · CLE 47% → 61% +13CLE 47% → 61%+13 pts
- Q49:26Caris LeVert makes 26-foot three pointer (Evan Mobley assists)TOR 109 – 109 CLE · CLE 55% → 69% +13CLE 55% → 69%+13 pts
- Q45:21Max Strus makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)TOR 117 – 119 CLE · CLE 58% → 75% +17CLE 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q439.1Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 124 – 129 CLE · CLE 85% → >99% +14CLE 85% → >99%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML TOR +600 / CLE -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11
- CLE 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 85.7%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -636
- TOR +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.0 – 124.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1347 | 1656 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CLE and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +22 | −12 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +311 Elo | CLE 85.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 84.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 84.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.7 | Points scored | 122.72nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 111.011th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.1 | Margin | +11.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 120.41st of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 108.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.96th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–16 | Road vs home | 19–11st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–16 | 26–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 23–10 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 19–18 | 24–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.