Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints26
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Kevon LooneyRebounds9
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints23
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–104
- Q40.1Raptors defensive team rebound101–104
- Q41.1Buddy Hield misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot101–104
- Q43.1Buddy Hield enters the game for Dennis Schroder101–104
- Q43.1Davion Mitchell enters the game for Chris Boucher101–104
- Q43.1Warriors Full timeout101–104
- Q44.0Stephen Curry defensive rebound101–104
- Q47.0Chris Boucher misses 23-foot three point jumper101–104
- Q427.0RJ Barrett defensive rebound101–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:50Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three pointer (Dennis Schroder assists)GS 93 – 91 TOR · GS 49% → 68% +19GS 49% → 68%+19 pts
- Q43:03Chris Boucher makes 28-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)GS 98 – 98 TOR · TOR 23% → 46% +22TOR 23% → 46%+22 pts
- Q42:34Kyle Anderson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 101 – 98 TOR · GS 54% → 78% +24GS 54% → 78%+24 pts
- Q41:33Ochai Agbaji makes two point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)GS 101 – 102 TOR · TOR 36% → 58% +23TOR 36% → 58%+23 pts
- Q439.1Ochai Agbaji makes dunk (Chris Boucher assists)GS 101 – 104 TOR · TOR 65% → 90% +25TOR 65% → 90%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -4.5
- ML GS -230 / TOR +185
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3.5
- GS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- GS: Elo 63.7%, market 66.5%
- Fair odds
- GS -199
- TOR +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.5 – 112.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1340 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | −7 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +98 Elo | GS 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 66.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 111.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 119.227th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 108.523rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 116.329th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.67th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 7–1325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–19 | 22–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.