Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints17
- Buddy HieldAssists5
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds10
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints25
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–108
- Q415.1Jarace Walker defensive rebound96–108
- Q418.1Pat Spencer misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot96–108
- Q440.1RayJ Dennis traveling96–108
- Q41:00Gui Santos makes 7-foot two point shot96–108
- Q41:11Jarace Walker lost ball turnover (Gui Santos steals)94–108
- Q41:33Quinten Post makes free throw 1 of 194–108
- Q41:33James Johnson shooting foul93–108
- Q41:33Quinten Post makes 6-foot jumper (Pat Spencer assists)93–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:52Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three point shot (Kyle Anderson assists)GS 48 – 51 IND · GS 15% → 21% +6GS 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q410:18Quinten Post makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)GS 76 – 80 IND · GS 12% → 20% +8GS 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q410:04Thomas Bryant makes 27-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)GS 76 – 83 IND · IND 80% → 88% +8IND 80% → 88%+8 pts
- Q49:40Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)GS 76 – 86 IND · IND 88% → 94% +5IND 88% → 94%+5 pts
- Q49:13Buddy Hield makes 30-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)GS 79 – 86 IND · GS 6% → 11% +5GS 6% → 11%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- IND -10.5
- ML GS +390 / IND -530
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -7.5
- IND 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- IND: Elo 77.3%, market 80.5%
- Fair odds
- IND -412
- GS +412 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 106.0 – 116.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −86 | −3 | GS: Missing Draymond Green −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +213 Elo | IND 77.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 80.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 115.610th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 116.022nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.416th of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 113.87th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 114.222nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.012th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 10–611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−86 Elo- Draymond Green back injury−3 Elo
Pacers
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–18 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–2 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.