Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints19
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds10
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints32
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–104
- Q40.1Kevon Looney defensive rebound107–104
- Q40.1Malik Beasley misses 28-foot three point jumper107–104
- Q44.0(00:04.1) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)107–104
- Q44.0Cade Cunningham offensive rebound107–104
- Q44.1Cade Cunningham misses free throw 2 of 2107–104
- Q44.1Kevon Looney enters the game for Lindy Waters III107–104
- Q44.1Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Tobias Harris107–104
- Q44.1Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2107–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:30Tobias Harris makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)GS 70 – 64 DET · DET 19% → 26% +8DET 19% → 26%+8 pts
- Q34:56Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)GS 72 – 67 DET · DET 21% → 29% +8DET 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q32:03Malik Beasley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)GS 78 – 72 DET · DET 17% → 25% +8DET 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q410:01Gui Santos makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 85 – 78 DET · GS 71% → 81% +11GS 71% → 81%+11 pts
- Q423.0Malik Beasley makes 4-foot driving dunkGS 104 – 102 DET · DET <1% → 12% +11DET <1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -2.5
- ML GS -150 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- GS 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.2 pts
- GS: Elo 42.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -135
- DET +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 111.5 – 109.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −25 | +36 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | GS crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +54 Elo | DET 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 112.014th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 113.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.318th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 110.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 111.618th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 9th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 9–819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–18 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.