Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints25
- Jamal SheadAssists5
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Pistons- Tim Hardaway Jr.Points27
- Cade CunninghamAssists17
- Cade CunninghamRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–123
- Q45.1shot clock turnover114–123
- Q428.1Cade Cunningham defensive rebound114–123
- Q431.0RJ Barrett misses 25-foot three point jumper114–123
- Q436.0Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2114–123
- Q436.0Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2114–122
- Q436.0Jakob Poeltl personal foul114–121
- Q437.0Pistons Full timeout114–121
- Q437.0Jakob Poeltl makes 1-foot layup114–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:37Malik Beasley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)TOR 104 – 109 DET · DET 66% → 80% +14DET 66% → 80%+14 pts
- Q45:44Immanuel Quickley makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 107 – 109 DET · TOR 19% → 33% +14TOR 19% → 33%+14 pts
- Q45:04Immanuel Quickley makes 15-foot step back jumpshotTOR 109 – 109 DET · TOR 33% → 45% +12TOR 33% → 45%+12 pts
- Q44:44Tobias Harris makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotTOR 109 – 111 DET · DET 55% → 67% +13DET 55% → 67%+13 pts
- Q43:49Cade Cunningham makes 10-foot two point shotTOR 109 – 113 DET · DET 68% → 80% +12DET 68% → 80%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -5.5
- ML TOR +175 / DET -210
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- DET: Elo 70.6%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -186
- TOR +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.5 – 116.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1346 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +17 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +152 Elo | DET 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 111.816th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 113.216th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.1 | Margin | −1.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 110.217th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 111.517th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–17 | Road vs home | 9–919th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–16 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.