Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints22
- Cole AnthonyAssists9
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds10
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints30
- Khris MiddletonAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–122
- Q415.1Trevelin Queen makes 30-foot three point jumper (Caleb Houstan assists)93–122
- Q439.0Liam Robbins makes free throw 2 of 290–122
- Q439.0Liam Robbins makes free throw 1 of 290–121
- Q439.0Caleb Houstan shooting foul90–120
- Q447.1Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 290–120
- Q447.1Magic offensive team rebound89–120
- Q447.1Anthony Black misses free throw 1 of 289–120
- Q447.1Liam Robbins shooting foul89–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:39Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)ORL 3 – 4 MIL · ORL 24% → 30% +5ORL 24% → 30%+5 pts
- Q18:49Paolo Banchero makes 1-foot layup (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)ORL 7 – 4 MIL · ORL 34% → 38% +4ORL 34% → 38%+4 pts
- Q18:32Brook Lopez makes 6-foot two point shotORL 7 – 6 MIL · MIL 62% → 66% +4MIL 62% → 66%+4 pts
- Q17:34Damian Lillard makes driving layupORL 7 – 8 MIL · MIL 66% → 70% +4MIL 66% → 70%+4 pts
- Q17:15Taurean Prince makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)ORL 9 – 11 MIL · MIL 66% → 72% +6MIL 66% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML ORL +210 / MIL -250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3.5
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.1%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -221
- ORL +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.0 – 109.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −40 | +47 | ORL: Missing Jalen Suggs −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +100 Elo | MIL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.8 | Points scored | 112.713th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.2 | Points allowed | 110.89th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.911th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 111.711th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.3 | Defense rating | 109.811th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 12–710th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−40 Elo- Jalen Suggs low back strain−6 Elo
Bucks
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–17 | 17–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–7 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–25 | 18–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–4 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.