Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints20
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Magic- Wendell Carter Jr.Points16
- Wendell Carter Jr.Assists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–100
- Q41.1Cory Joseph makes 29-foot three pointer113–100
- Q47.0shot clock turnover113–97
- Q431.1Trevelin Queen makes 1-foot dunk (Caleb Houstan assists)113–97
- Q436.1Magic offensive team rebound113–95
- Q437.1Cory Joseph misses 25-foot three point jumper113–95
- Q452.1Tristan da Silva defensive rebound113–95
- Q455.1Hunter Tyson misses 24-foot three point jumper113–95
- Q41:01Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound113–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:19Jonathan Isaac makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)DEN 38 – 45 ORL · ORL 44% → 52% +8ORL 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q311:44Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 57 – 52 ORL · DEN 67% → 77% +10DEN 67% → 77%+10 pts
- Q39:28Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three pointer (Cole Anthony assists)DEN 59 – 59 ORL · ORL 28% → 36% +8ORL 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q37:31Christian Braun makes 22-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 65 – 63 ORL · DEN 60% → 69% +9DEN 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q36:23Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 70 – 65 ORL · DEN 69% → 77% +8DEN 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML DEN -270 / ORL +220
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -6
- DEN 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 73.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -234
- ORL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.0 – 106.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1625 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | −55 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Missing Jalen Suggs −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +173 Elo | DEN 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.3 | Points scored | 104.330th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 104.12nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 106.328th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 106.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.4 | Pace | 98.226th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 14–77th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−55 Elo- Jalen Suggs low back strain−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 24–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 16–7 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–16 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 0–2 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.