Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints23
- Paolo BancheroAssists4
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds9
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints30
- Jaylen BrownAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–121
- Q44.1Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound94–121
- Q47.1Trevelin Queen misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot94–121
- Q49.1Trevelin Queen offensive rebound94–121
- Q413.1Trevelin Queen misses two point shot94–121
- Q413.1Trevelin Queen offensive rebound94–121
- Q416.1Caleb Houstan misses 26-foot three point jumper94–121
- Q423.0Neemias Queta makes 4-foot layup (Sam Hauser assists)94–121
- Q439.1Sam Hauser defensive rebound94–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:02Wendell Carter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 3 – 2 BOS · ORL 9% → 12% +3ORL 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q110:18Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)ORL 3 – 5 BOS · BOS 88% → 91% +3BOS 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q18:29Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three pointerORL 9 – 10 BOS · BOS 86% → 90% +3BOS 86% → 90%+3 pts
- Q23:51Kristaps Porzingis makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)ORL 46 – 54 BOS · BOS 90% → 93% +3BOS 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q310:43Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)ORL 59 – 69 BOS · BOS 92% → 95% +3BOS 92% → 95%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -14.5
- ML ORL +800 / BOS -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 76.4%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -847
- ORL +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 99.0 – 113.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | +13 | ORL: Missing Jalen Suggs −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +204 Elo | BOS 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 87.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 86.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.5 | Points scored | 117.54th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.7 | Points allowed | 108.76th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +8.83rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 117.23rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.5 | Defense rating | 108.56th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 99.423rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 14–77th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−50 Elo- Jalen Suggs low back strain−6 Elo
Celtics
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–18 | 16–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–7 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 17–25 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.