Portland Trail Blazers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints27
- Deni AvdijaAssists4
- Donovan ClinganRebounds13
Hornets- Nick Smith Jr.Points17
- Nick Smith Jr.Assists5
- Josh OkogieRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–97
- Q40.0Mark Williams makes 1-foot layup (Nick Smith Jr. assists)102–97
- Q43.1Toumani Camara makes 2-foot driving dunk (Anfernee Simons assists)102–95
- Q410.1Mark Williams makes dunk (Josh Green assists)100–95
- Q411.1Josh Green offensive rebound100–93
- Q414.1Josh Green misses 24-foot three point jumper100–93
- Q417.1Vasilije Micic enters the game for Moussa Diabate100–93
- Q417.1KJ Simpson enters the game for Josh Okogie100–93
- Q417.1Hornets Full timeout100–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:54DaQuan Jeffries makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)POR 68 – 75 CHA · CHA 65% → 75% +10CHA 65% → 75%+10 pts
- Q49:24Anfernee Simons makes 13-foot step back jumpshotPOR 77 – 77 CHA · POR 41% → 50% +9POR 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q48:59Shaedon Sharpe makes driving layupPOR 79 – 78 CHA · POR 46% → 55% +10POR 46% → 55%+10 pts
- Q48:49Vasilije Micic makes driving layupPOR 80 – 80 CHA · CHA 40% → 50% +10CHA 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q47:44Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three pointerPOR 84 – 81 CHA · POR 50% → 66% +15POR 50% → 66%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -0.5
- ML POR -115 / CHA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -0.5
- POR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- POR: Elo 48.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -104
- CHA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.0 – 108.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1345 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −3 | −7 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +14 Elo | CHA 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30107.9 | Points scored | 107.428th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 113.017th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.7 | Margin | −5.624th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 106.528th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 112.017th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 100.120th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–16 | Road vs home | 7–1324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−3 Elo- Robert Williams III sore right hand−11 Elo
Hornets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–21 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 16–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–1 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.