Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Mark WilliamsPoints38
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Mark WilliamsRebounds9
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints24
- Ja MorantAssists13
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–132
- Q415.1Jay Huff defensive rebound120–132
- Q419.0Nick Smith Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot120–132
- Q426.1DaQuan Jeffries defensive rebound120–132
- Q429.1Jay Huff misses 26-foot three point jumper120–132
- Q446.0Isaiah Wong makes 3-foot two point shot120–132
- Q458.1DaQuan Jeffries enters the game for Mark Williams118–132
- Q458.1Moussa Diabate enters the game for LaMelo Ball118–132
- Q458.1Isaiah Wong enters the game for Miles Bridges118–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Ja Morant makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 0 – 3 MEM · MEM 83% → 87% +4MEM 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q18:44Jaylen Wells makes 22-foot three point shot (Ja Morant assists)CHA 6 – 10 MEM · MEM 84% → 88% +4MEM 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q18:32Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three pointer (Nick Smith Jr. assists)CHA 9 – 10 MEM · CHA 12% → 16% +4CHA 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q16:52Josh Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 12 – 14 MEM · CHA 12% → 15% +4CHA 12% → 15%+4 pts
- Q15:51Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 14 – 19 MEM · MEM 85% → 88% +4MEM 85% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -11.5
- ML CHA +475 / MEM -750
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -9
- MEM 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MEM: Elo 80.8%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- MEM -507
- CHA +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.0 – 126.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | +67 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +250 Elo | MEM 80.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 76.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 76.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.1 | Points scored | 123.11st of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 114.922nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.4 | Margin | +8.24th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 115.05th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 107.35th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.9 | Pace | 107.11st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–15 | Road vs home | 16–53rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–18 | 28–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 19–10 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–24 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–0 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.