Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints32
- Mike ConleyAssists8
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds12
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points24
- Ja MorantAssists7
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–108
- Q40.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound106–108
- Q40.0Anthony Edwards misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot106–108
- Q45.0Brandon Clarke enters the game for Luke Kennard106–108
- Q45.0Timberwolves Full timeout106–108
- Q46.1Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound106–108
- Q47.1Anthony Edwards blocks Jaren Jackson Jr.'s tip shot106–108
- Q47.1Jaren Jackson Jr. offensive rebound106–108
- Q47.2Jaren Jackson Jr. misses driving floating jump shot106–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:45Naz Reid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)MIN 87 – 82 MEM · MIN 53% → 67% +14MIN 53% → 67%+14 pts
- Q48:08Rob Dillingham makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 90 – 82 MEM · MIN 69% → 81% +12MIN 69% → 81%+12 pts
- Q45:08Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 98 – 93 MEM · MIN 58% → 75% +17MIN 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q43:21Desmond Bane makes 3-foot driving floating jump shotMIN 100 – 102 MEM · MEM 54% → 69% +15MEM 54% → 69%+15 pts
- Q42:01Naz Reid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 103 – 106 MEM · MIN 5% → 20% +15MIN 5% → 20%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -5.5
- ML MIN +170 / MEM -200
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3
- MEM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 62.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -180
- MIN +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 114.5 – 120.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +59 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +86 Elo | MEM 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.1 | Points scored | 123.41st of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +8.34th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 115.25th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 107.45th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.5 | Pace | 107.31st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 15–53rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–26 | 28–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 19–9 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–20 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–1 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.