Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints41
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints22
- Kyle KuzmaAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–106
- Q421.1Jared Butler makes free throw 2 of 2120–106
- Q421.1Jared Butler makes free throw 1 of 2120–105
- Q421.1Tristen Newton personal foul120–104
- Q429.1Leonard Miller traveling120–104
- Q432.0Tristen Newton defensive rebound120–104
- Q434.0Anthony Gill misses driving floating jump shot120–104
- Q449.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. defensive rebound120–104
- Q451.1Luka Garza misses 9-foot two point shot120–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:10Kyshawn George makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)MIN 74 – 77 WSH · WSH 26% → 36% +10WSH 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q31:53Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 77 – 77 WSH · MIN 63% → 74% +10MIN 63% → 74%+10 pts
- Q410:07Carlton Carrington makes 29-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)MIN 85 – 84 WSH · WSH 16% → 26% +10WSH 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q48:42Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 91 – 86 WSH · MIN 77% → 87% +10MIN 77% → 87%+10 pts
- Q48:24Carlton Carrington makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot (Alexandre Sarr assists)MIN 91 – 89 WSH · WSH 13% → 23% +10WSH 13% → 23%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -14.5
- ML MIN -1100 / WSH +700
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10.5
- MIN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 84.6%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -733
- WSH +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 119.0 – 104.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1294 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | −61 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +295 Elo | MIN 84.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 87.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 87.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.3 | Points scored | 108.424th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 122.730th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −14.330th of 30 |
| 18th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 103.930th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.2 | Defense rating | 117.730th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 103.94th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 5–1528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–23 | 14–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | — |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 14–23 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.