Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints27
- Cason WallaceAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Wizards- Corey KispertPoints17
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–95
- Q415.2Jaylin Williams defensive rebound136–95
- Q418.0Justin Champagnie misses 7-foot two point shot136–95
- Q432.0Kenrich Williams makes 19-foot pullup jump shot136–95
- Q442.0Justin Champagnie makes 3-foot layup (Jared Butler assists)134–95
- Q443.0Wizards offensive team rebound134–93
- Q443.1Jaylin Williams blocks Anthony Gill 's 5-foot layup134–93
- Q41:01Jared Butler defensive rebound134–93
- Q41:01Jared Butler blocks Branden Carlson 's 5-foot layup134–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:42Bilal Coulibaly makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)OKC 21 – 18 WSH · WSH 6% → 9% +2WSH 6% → 9%+2 pts
- Q12:48Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 5-foot two point shotOKC 23 – 22 WSH · OKC 87% → 89% +2OKC 87% → 89%+2 pts
- Q12:25Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 27 – 22 WSH · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q12:14Jonas Valanciunas makes 24-foot three point jumper (Carlton Carrington assists)OKC 27 – 25 WSH · WSH 7% → 10% +3WSH 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q12:00Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerOKC 30 – 25 WSH · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML OKC -1800 / WSH +900
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -17
- OKC 94%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 94.0%, market 90.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -947
- WSH +947 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 123.0 – 107.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1724 | 1297 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −52 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +478 Elo | OKC 94.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 93.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 93.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 90.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 108.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.4 | Points allowed | 122.330th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.2 | Margin | −13.630th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 104.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.9 | Defense rating | 117.430th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.4 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3014–4 | Road vs home | 5–1428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–13 | 14–22 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–12 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 14–22 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.