Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds15
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–115
- Q41.0Gui Santos enters the game for Kevon Looney116–115
- Q41.0Buddy Hield enters the game for Moses Moody116–115
- Q41.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Donte DiVincenzo116–115
- Q41.0Warriors Full timeout116–115
- Q41.0(00:01) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)116–115
- Q41.0Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three pointer116–115
- Q46.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2116–112
- Q46.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2115–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:36Stephen Curry makes 23-foot three pointer (Kevon Looney assists)GS 108 – 103 MIN · GS 63% → 84% +21GS 63% → 84%+21 pts
- Q42:12Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three pointerGS 108 – 106 MIN · MIN 13% → 35% +22MIN 13% → 35%+22 pts
- Q447.1Stephen Curry makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kevon Looney assists)GS 111 – 108 MIN · GS 47% → 88% +40GS 47% → 88%+40 pts
- Q439.1Jaden McDaniels makes dunk (Donte DiVincenzo assists)GS 111 – 110 MIN · MIN 10% → 35% +25MIN 10% → 35%+25 pts
- Q412.0Donte DiVincenzo makes driving layup (Jaden McDaniels assists)GS 113 – 112 MIN · MIN <1% → 22% +21MIN <1% → 22%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML GS +215 / MIN -260
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 66.1%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -228
- GS +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 105.5 – 112.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | −14 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +116 Elo | MIN 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 109.622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 107.64th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +2.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 110.119th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 108.16th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.024th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 10–818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–20 | 15–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–23 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.