Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints36
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists5
- OG AnunobyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–99
- Q40.0(00:00) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)116–99
- Q47.1Rob Dillingham defensive rebound116–99
- Q410.0Miles McBride misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot116–99
- Q424.1Josh Hart defensive rebound116–99
- Q427.1Rob Dillingham misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot116–99
- Q435.0Josh Hart bad pass (Josh Minott steals)116–99
- Q445.0Tyler Kolek defensive rebound116–99
- Q445.0Jaylen Clark misses tip shot116–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:40OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)MIN 78 – 76 NY · NY 35% → 46% +11NY 35% → 46%+11 pts
- Q333.1Naz Reid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)MIN 81 – 78 NY · MIN 46% → 58% +12MIN 46% → 58%+12 pts
- Q410:23Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumperMIN 86 – 80 NY · MIN 60% → 72% +12MIN 60% → 72%+12 pts
- Q49:20Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 90 – 81 NY · MIN 73% → 84% +10MIN 73% → 84%+10 pts
- Q47:56Jaden McDaniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 94 – 87 NY · MIN 67% → 79% +13MIN 67% → 79%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML MIN +125 / NY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2
- NY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- NY: Elo 57.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -135
- MIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 107.0 – 109.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | −34 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Karl-Anthony Towns −63 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +53 Elo | NY 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.8 | Points scored | 117.46th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 111.010th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +6.55th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 118.82nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 112.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.426th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 13–79th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−34 Elo- Karl-Anthony Towns right hand−63 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–25 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–22 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–2 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.