Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints36
- Cade CunninghamAssists4
- Tobias HarrisRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists11
- Josh HartRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–119
- Q42.0Cade Cunningham defensive rebound124–119
- Q44.1Jalen Brunson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot124–119
- Q46.1Ausar Thompson enters the game for Malik Beasley124–119
- Q46.1Knicks Full timeout124–119
- Q46.1Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)124–119
- Q429.2Jalen Brunson makes 6-foot two point shot121–119
- Q439.0Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)121–117
- Q41:00Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Ausar Thompson118–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:24Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 110 – 105 NY · DET 52% → 69% +16DET 52% → 69%+16 pts
- Q42:32Cade Cunningham makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotDET 116 – 112 NY · DET 62% → 78% +16DET 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q42:25Josh Hart makes layup (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 116 – 114 NY · NY 22% → 37% +16NY 22% → 37%+16 pts
- Q41:26Mikal Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 118 – 117 NY · NY 14% → 42% +29NY 14% → 42%+29 pts
- Q439.0Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DET 121 – 117 NY · DET 65% → 96% +31DET 65% → 96%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -7.5
- ML DET +260 / NY -320
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- NY: Elo 67.1%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -274
- DET +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 108.5 – 116.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +22 | +23 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +124 Elo | NY 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 71.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 117.27th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 110.48th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +6.85th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 118.52nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 111.617th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 13–65th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–18 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 18–17 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–19 | 23–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–4 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.