New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints38
- Josh HartAssists12
- Josh HartRebounds17
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints33
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game125–119
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime125–119
- OT2.1Josh Hart defensive rebound125–119
- OT2.1Justin Edwards misses 28-foot three point shot125–119
- OT4.076ers Full timeout125–119
- OT4.0shot clock turnover125–119
- OT27.1Tyrese Maxey makes two point shot (Justin Edwards assists)125–119
- OT30.0Jalen Brunson lost ball turnover (Justin Edwards steals)125–117
- OT50.0Paul George makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Guerschon Yabusele assists)125–117
- OT1:02Mikal Bridges makes 1-foot dunk (Josh Hart assists)125–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:46Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotNY 100 – 99 PHI · PHI 20% → 38% +19PHI 20% → 38%+19 pts
- Q43:03Justin Edwards makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)NY 102 – 102 PHI · PHI 24% → 46% +22PHI 24% → 46%+22 pts
- Q42:15Josh Hart makes dunkNY 104 – 102 PHI · NY 53% → 71% +18NY 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q41:26OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 107 – 102 PHI · NY 75% → 94% +19NY 75% → 94%+19 pts
- Q43.0Tyrese Maxey makes 2-foot two point shotNY 109 – 109 PHI · PHI <1% → 50% +49PHI <1% → 50%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML NY -210 / PHI +175
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- NY: Elo 65.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -186
- PHI +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.5 – 107.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −40 | −20 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +113 Elo | NY 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 107.328th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 110.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.5 | Margin | −3.623rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 108.025th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 111.616th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.6 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 6–1225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−20 Elo- Andre Drummond sprained left toe−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 14–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–18 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders | 24–17 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 8–3 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Nov 12NY 111 @ PHI 99Picked NY 59%Hit
- May 2NY 118 @ PHI 115PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Apr 30PHI 112 @ NY 106PlayoffsPicked NY 59%Miss
- Apr 28NY 97 @ PHI 92PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Apr 25NY 114 @ PHI 125PlayoffsPicked PHI 52%Hit
- Apr 22PHI 101 @ NY 104PlayoffsPicked NY 58%Hit
- Apr 20PHI 104 @ NY 111PlayoffsPicked NY 57%Hit
- Mar 12PHI 79 @ NY 106Picked NY 64%Hit