Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds16
76ers- Justin EdwardsPoints25
- Justin EdwardsAssists4
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–102
- Q43.1shot clock turnover118–102
- Q427.1Adem Bona turnover118–102
- Q427.1Adem Bona offensive foul118–102
- Q434.1Cason Wallace makes free throw 2 of 2118–102
- Q434.1Cason Wallace makes free throw 1 of 2117–102
- Q434.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. shooting foul116–102
- Q445.2Alex Ducas defensive rebound116–102
- Q450.1Ricky Council IV misses 28-foot three point jumper116–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:34Cason Wallace makes 2-foot two point shot (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 89 – 81 PHI · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q410:32Justin Edwards makes 25-foot three point shot (Jeff Dowtin Jr. assists)OKC 89 – 84 PHI · PHI 7% → 12% +5PHI 7% → 12%+5 pts
- Q410:13Cason Wallace makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 91 – 84 PHI · OKC 88% → 92% +4OKC 88% → 92%+4 pts
- Q49:54Eric Gordon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)OKC 91 – 87 PHI · PHI 8% → 15% +6PHI 8% → 15%+6 pts
- Q49:19Jalen Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 95 – 87 PHI · OKC 88% → 94% +6OKC 88% → 94%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML OKC -1800 / PHI +900
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -13
- OKC 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 89.3%, market 90.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -947
- PHI +947 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 115.0 – 99.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1726 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −113 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −57, Paul George −42 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +369 Elo | OKC 89.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 83.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 90.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 107.427th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.2 | Points allowed | 110.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.0 | Margin | −3.223rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 108.225th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.6 | Defense rating | 111.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–4 | Road vs home | 6–1125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−113 Elo- Tyrese Maxey left hand−57 Elo
- Paul George right ankle soreness−42 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–13 | 14–23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–12 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.