Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints36
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Georges NiangRebounds10
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Julius RandleAssists9
- Julius RandleRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–117
- Q410.1Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2124–117
- Q410.1Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2123–117
- Q410.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Rob Dillingham122–117
- Q410.1Rob Dillingham personal take foul122–117
- Q412.1Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)122–117
- Q414.1Timberwolves Full timeout122–114
- Q414.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2122–114
- Q414.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound121–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q252.1Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 60 – 58 MIN · CLE 58% → 66% +8CLE 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q39:36Mike Conley makes 23-foot three pointerCLE 65 – 65 MIN · MIN 32% → 40% +9MIN 32% → 40%+9 pts
- Q39:01Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 70 – 65 MIN · CLE 66% → 74% +8CLE 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q32:34Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)CLE 81 – 77 MIN · MIN 19% → 28% +9MIN 19% → 28%+9 pts
- Q31:07Ty Jerome makes 23-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)CLE 86 – 79 MIN · CLE 72% → 81% +9CLE 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML CLE -200 / MIN +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 61.0%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -180
- MIN +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.0 – 110.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1630 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | −10 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +78 Elo | CLE 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 62.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.0 | Points scored | 109.922nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 107.64th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.0 | Margin | +2.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 110.916th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 108.67th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.9 | Pace | 98.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 3014–4 | Road vs home | 10–918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–13 | 16–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–12 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 27–13 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.