Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints20
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds7
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–134
- Q43.1shot clock turnover114–134
- Q427.1Jaylon Tyson makes driving layup (Tristan Thompson assists)114–134
- Q439.1Tristan Thompson defensive rebound112–134
- Q445.0Branden Carlson misses 24-foot three point jumper112–134
- Q459.0Craig Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three pointer (Tristan Thompson assists)112–134
- Q41:14Ousmane Dieng makes 12-foot step back jumpshot109–134
- Q41:25Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound109–132
- Q41:27Jaylon Tyson misses 6-foot pullup jump shot109–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:58Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CLE 4 – 3 OKC · OKC 47% → 53% +6OKC 47% → 53%+6 pts
- Q17:37Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 7 – 7 OKC · CLE 39% → 45% +6CLE 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q16:26Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three pointer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CLE 9 – 10 OKC · OKC 51% → 57% +7OKC 51% → 57%+7 pts
- Q16:08Max Strus makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 12 – 10 OKC · CLE 43% → 49% +7CLE 43% → 49%+7 pts
- Q13:47Branden Carlson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CLE 12 – 19 OKC · OKC 64% → 70% +6OKC 64% → 70%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -2.5
- ML CLE +115 / OKC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3
- OKC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 61.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.0 – 117.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1642 | 1729 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +1 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +79 Elo | OKC 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.3 | Points scored | 115.310th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 103.21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.8 | Margin | +12.11st of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 113.58th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 101.61st of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.57th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 1st of 3014–3 | Road vs home | 16–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–12 | 27–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 24–12 | 26–12 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 26–13 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.