Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints35
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints23
- Andrew NembhardAssists9
- Pascal SiakamRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–117
- Q413.1Jarace Walker makes 6-foot dunk (Obi Toppin assists)127–117
- Q418.1Craig Porter Jr. lost ball turnover (RayJ Dennis steals)127–115
- Q437.0RayJ Dennis makes free throw 2 of 2127–115
- Q437.0RayJ Dennis makes free throw 1 of 2127–114
- Q437.0Isaac Okoro shooting foul127–113
- Q452.0shot clock turnover127–113
- Q452.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound127–113
- Q453.1Jarace Walker blocks Sam Merrill 's 24-foot three point jumper127–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:17Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)CLE 66 – 66 IND · IND 25% → 33% +8IND 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q39:34Evan Mobley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 71 – 68 IND · CLE 67% → 75% +8CLE 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q39:00Evan Mobley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 74 – 70 IND · CLE 69% → 77% +8CLE 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q45:08Bennedict Mathurin makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Pascal Siakam assists)CLE 115 – 109 IND · IND 5% → 12% +7IND 5% → 12%+7 pts
- Q44:48Darius Garland makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 118 – 109 IND · CLE 88% → 95% +7CLE 88% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML CLE -340 / IND +270
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.7%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -286
- IND +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 119.5 – 111.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1635 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −44 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −42 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +90 Elo | CLE 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.1 | Points scored | 115.211th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 114.921st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.8 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.1 | Offense rating | 113.68th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 113.321st of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.815th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–3 | Road vs home | 11–610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−44 Elo- Tyrese Haliburton left groin strain−42 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–12 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–12 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–13 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–3 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.