Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints19
- T.J. McConnellAssists8
- Jarace WalkerRebounds12
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints20
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–93
- Q417.0Johnny Furphy defensive rebound108–93
- Q420.1Bennedict Mathurin blocks Jaylon Tyson's layup108–93
- Q425.2Thomas Bryant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)108–93
- Q448.1Tristan Thompson makes 2-foot two point shot (Sam Merrill assists)105–93
- Q459.0Sam Merrill defensive rebound105–91
- Q41:02Bennedict Mathurin misses 22-foot pullup jump shot105–91
- Q41:21Johnny Furphy defensive rebound105–91
- Q41:23Isaac Okoro misses free throw 2 of 2105–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:04Bennedict Mathurin makes 24-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 65 – 65 CLE · IND 25% → 34% +9IND 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q32:09Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point shot (Jarace Walker assists)IND 70 – 65 CLE · IND 42% → 54% +11IND 42% → 54%+11 pts
- Q410:35Jarace Walker makes dunk (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 79 – 73 CLE · IND 54% → 63% +9IND 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q410:09Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Thomas Bryant assists)IND 82 – 73 CLE · IND 64% → 76% +12IND 64% → 76%+12 pts
- Q49:17Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Isaac Okoro assists)IND 84 – 78 CLE · CLE 23% → 34% +12CLE 23% → 34%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML IND +300 / CLE -380
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.7%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -317
- IND +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.0 – 124.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1658 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | +42 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +170 Elo | CLE 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 71.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 122.92nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 111.412th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +11.51st of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 120.81st of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 109.59th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 20–11st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–20 | 26–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 23–11 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 25–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–2 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.