Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints33
- Naji MarshallAssists4
- Daniel GaffordRebounds15
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints23
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Mark WilliamsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–110
- Q41.0Josh Green makes free throw 2 of 2105–110
- Q41.0Josh Green makes free throw 1 of 2105–109
- Q41.0Maxi Kleber personal foul105–108
- Q41.0Josh Green defensive rebound105–108
- Q43.1Klay Thompson misses 26-foot three point jumper105–108
- Q410.1P.J. Washington defensive rebound105–108
- Q413.0LaMelo Ball misses free throw 2 of 2105–108
- Q413.0Klay Thompson enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper105–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:45Kyrie Irving makes 28-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 90 – 89 CHA · DAL 45% → 59% +15DAL 45% → 59%+15 pts
- Q48:30Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three pointer (Mark Williams assists)DAL 90 – 92 CHA · CHA 41% → 56% +15CHA 41% → 56%+15 pts
- Q47:39Kyrie Irving makes 27-foot three pointerDAL 93 – 94 CHA · DAL 34% → 49% +15DAL 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q44:16Nick Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)DAL 102 – 105 CHA · CHA 47% → 67% +20CHA 47% → 67%+20 pts
- Q41:31Daniel Gafford makes two point shotDAL 105 – 107 CHA · DAL 13% → 29% +16DAL 13% → 29%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML DAL -165 / CHA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 67.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -149
- CHA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 113.5 – 110.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1338 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | +56 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone and CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +123 Elo | DAL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 107.028th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 112.714th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.6 | Margin | −5.724th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 106.228th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 111.916th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.920th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 15th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 6–1325th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–21 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders | 19–23 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.