Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Daniel GaffordPoints27
- Naji MarshallAssists10
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds14
Pelicans- Dejounte MurrayPoints30
- Dejounte MurrayAssists7
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–119
- Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound116–119
- Q40.0Naji Marshall misses 64-foot three point pullup jump shot116–119
- Q41.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2116–119
- Q41.1Yves Missi enters the game for Jordan Hawkins116–118
- Q41.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2116–118
- Q41.1P.J. Washington personal foul116–117
- Q41.1Trey Murphy III defensive rebound116–117
- Q43.1Trey Murphy III blocks Spencer Dinwiddie 's 2-foot two point shot116–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:17Dejounte Murray makes 24-foot three pointerDAL 107 – 107 NO · NO 30% → 50% +20NO 30% → 50%+20 pts
- Q43:15Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)DAL 110 – 109 NO · DAL 34% → 58% +23DAL 34% → 58%+23 pts
- Q42:07Klay Thompson makes 13-foot two point shotDAL 114 – 111 NO · DAL 60% → 77% +17DAL 60% → 77%+17 pts
- Q41:48Dejounte Murray makes 15-foot two point shotDAL 114 – 113 NO · NO 21% → 40% +18NO 21% → 40%+18 pts
- Q445.0Javonte Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)DAL 114 – 116 NO · NO 34% → 80% +46NO 34% → 80%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NO -1.5
- ML DAL -105 / NO -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- NO 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- NO: Elo 40.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NO -104
- DAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 110.0 – 111.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NO and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −113 | −35 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Zion Williamson −48 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +65 Elo | DAL 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 50.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 108.026th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 117.125th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.6 | Margin | −9.129th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 106.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 115.928th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.617th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 5–1628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−35 Elo- Zion Williamson return to competition reconditioning−48 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–20 | 17–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders | 18–22 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.