Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints19
- Jalen WilliamsAssists6
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds10
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints25
- Kyrie IrvingAssists5
- Naji MarshallRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–106
- Q45.1Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point shot98–106
- Q412.0Kyrie Irving makes 3-foot layup (Maxi Kleber assists)95–106
- Q422.1Kyrie Irving makes technical free throw95–104
- Q422.1Thunder Coach's Challenge95–103
- Q422.1(00:22.4) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Thunder] charged with a timeout95–103
- Q422.1Jalen Williams technical foul95–103
- Q422.1Mavericks Full timeout95–103
- Q423.1Mavericks defensive team rebound95–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:16Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)OKC 81 – 83 DAL · OKC 30% → 44% +13OKC 30% → 44%+13 pts
- Q47:36Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)OKC 83 – 86 DAL · DAL 47% → 62% +15DAL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- Q45:20Luguentz Dort makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 88 – 89 DAL · OKC 29% → 46% +18OKC 29% → 46%+18 pts
- Q44:56Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)OKC 88 – 92 DAL · DAL 54% → 72% +18DAL 54% → 72%+18 pts
- Q44:35Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 91 – 92 DAL · OKC 27% → 46% +19OKC 27% → 46%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -2.5
- ML OKC -150 / DAL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1
- OKC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 54.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -135
- DAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 112.0 – 109.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1741 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −105 | −49 | OKC: Missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander −110 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +33 Elo | OKC 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 115.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.5 | Points allowed | 112.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.3 | Margin | +3.58th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 114.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.7 | Defense rating | 110.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.38th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–4 | Road vs home | 12–814th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−105 Elo- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander right wrist sprain−110 Elo
Mavericks
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–13 | 20–21 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 27–12 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 19–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–6 DAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.
- Dec 10DAL 104 @ OKC 118Picked OKC 61%Hit
- Nov 17DAL 121 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 72%Miss
- May 18OKC 116 @ DAL 117PlayoffsPicked DAL 51%Hit
- May 15DAL 104 @ OKC 92PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Miss
- May 13OKC 100 @ DAL 96PlayoffsPicked DAL 50%Miss
- May 11OKC 101 @ DAL 105PlayoffsPicked OKC 51%Miss
- May 9DAL 119 @ OKC 110PlayoffsPicked OKC 64%Miss
- May 7DAL 95 @ OKC 117PlayoffsPicked OKC 60%Hit