Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints39
- Damian LillardAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints30
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–125
- Q42.0shot clock turnover112–125
- Q426.0Ryan Rollins makes driving layup112–125
- Q433.0Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound110–125
- Q434.1Jabari Walker misses driving floating jump shot110–125
- Q450.0Trail Blazers defensive team rebound110–125
- Q451.1Stanley Umude misses 24-foot three point jumper110–125
- Q41:04Bryce McGowens makes free throw 2 of 2110–125
- Q41:04Bryce McGowens makes free throw 1 of 2110–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:22Deni Avdija makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)MIL 77 – 85 POR · POR 59% → 69% +10POR 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q33:01Brook Lopez makes 28-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 80 – 85 POR · MIL 30% → 41% +10MIL 30% → 41%+10 pts
- Q31:26Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point shot (Shaedon Sharpe assists)MIL 82 – 90 POR · POR 61% → 71% +11POR 61% → 71%+11 pts
- Q337.0Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumperMIL 87 – 90 POR · MIL 35% → 46% +12MIL 35% → 46%+12 pts
- Q332.0Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)MIL 87 – 93 POR · POR 54% → 65% +12POR 54% → 65%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -5.5
- ML MIL -220 / POR +185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4.5
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.0%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -196
- POR +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 119.0 – 113.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +38 | +15 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +123 Elo | MIL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 107.826th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 115.322nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −7.527th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 107.226th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 114.726th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.419th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 9–1323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–23 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–17 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 22–23 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–2 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.