Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Kel'el WarePoints22
- Tyler HerroAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints29
- Damian LillardAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–125
- Q40.1shot clock turnover96–125
- Q422.0Tyler Smith defensive rebound96–125
- Q424.1Josh Christopher misses free throw 2 of 296–125
- Q424.1Josh Christopher makes free throw 1 of 296–125
- Q424.1Stanley Umude personal foul95–125
- Q435.1Keshad Johnson defensive rebound95–125
- Q438.1Stanley Umude misses driving floating jump shot95–125
- Q459.0MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound95–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:28Tyler Herro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 10 – 3 MIL · MIA 41% → 47% +6MIA 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q15:06Andre Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)MIA 20 – 10 MIL · MIL 38% → 45% +7MIL 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q13:07Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Taurean Prince assists)MIA 23 – 19 MIL · MIL 51% → 58% +7MIL 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q12:24Duncan Robinson makes 27-foot three pointer (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 28 – 21 MIL · MIA 42% → 49% +7MIA 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q210:57Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Pat Connaughton assists)MIA 30 – 32 MIL · MIL 63% → 70% +7MIL 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -5.5
- ML MIA +200 / MIL -250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -5.5
- MIL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 71.4%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -214
- MIA +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 109.0 – 114.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +33 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +159 Elo | MIL 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 113.613th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 110.48th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +3.29th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 112.511th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 109.38th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 100.616th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 15–75th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–25 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 6–11 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 24–18 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.