Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints37
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Tyrese MaxeyRebounds6
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints34
- Khris MiddletonAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–123
- Q421.1Kelly Oubre Jr. makes dunk109–123
- Q421.1Kelly Oubre Jr. offensive rebound107–123
- Q422.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. misses 12-foot pullup jump shot107–123
- Q434.1Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)107–123
- Q435.0Ryan Rollins offensive rebound107–120
- Q437.1Stanley Umude misses 23-foot three point jumper107–120
- Q450.1Justin Edwards out of bounds lost ball turnover107–120
- Q41:05Chris Livingston out of bounds lost ball turnover107–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:41Eric Gordon makes 29-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 36 – 32 MIL · PHI 22% → 28% +6PHI 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q27:25Eric Gordon makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jeff Dowtin Jr. assists)PHI 40 – 35 MIL · PHI 25% → 31% +7PHI 25% → 31%+7 pts
- Q27:11Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)PHI 40 – 38 MIL · MIL 68% → 75% +7MIL 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q33:03Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Eric Gordon assists)PHI 76 – 79 MIL · PHI 13% → 20% +7PHI 13% → 20%+7 pts
- Q32:07Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)PHI 76 – 84 MIL · MIL 85% → 90% +6MIL 85% → 90%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -13.5
- ML PHI +500 / MIL -725
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -11.5
- MIL 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 86.2%, market 84.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -527
- PHI +527 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 106.5 – 120.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −58 | +53 | PHI: Missing Paul George −41, Andre Drummond −12 · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +318 Elo | MIL 86.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 84.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 84.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 84.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.4 | Points scored | 113.413th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 110.48th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.9 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 112.212th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 109.38th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.1 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 14–77th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−58 Elo- Paul George left groin tightness−41 Elo
- Andre Drummond left toe−12 Elo
Bucks
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–26 | 19–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 8–16 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 20–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 0–4 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.