Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints28
- Jeff Dowtin Jr.Assists6
- Ricky Council IVRebounds9
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints21
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–115
- Q46.0shot clock turnover102–115
- Q430.0Pete Nance makes free throw 2 of 2102–115
- Q430.076ers offensive team rebound101–115
- Q430.0Pete Nance misses free throw 1 of 2101–115
- Q430.0RayJ Dennis personal foul101–115
- Q442.0Ben Sheppard makes 26-foot three pointer101–115
- Q41:05Adem Bona makes free throw 2 of 2101–112
- Q41:05Jarace Walker enters the game for Andrew Nembhard100–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:00Ricky Council IV makes 29-foot three point jumper (Eric Gordon assists)PHI 64 – 61 IND · PHI 29% → 37% +8PHI 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q39:28Myles Turner makes 26-foot three pointer (Andrew Nembhard assists)PHI 68 – 66 IND · IND 56% → 65% +9IND 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q37:19Ricky Council IV makes 29-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 71 – 70 IND · PHI 25% → 33% +8PHI 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q37:04Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)PHI 71 – 73 IND · IND 67% → 75% +8IND 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q44:55Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 95 – 104 IND · IND 89% → 96% +7IND 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- IND -10.5
- ML PHI +360 / IND -475
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -7.5
- IND 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- IND: Elo 77.2%, market 79.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -380
- PHI +380 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 107.5 – 118.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | −13 | PHI: Missing Paul George −38 · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +212 Elo | IND 77.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 79.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.6 | Points scored | 115.211th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 114.921st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.6 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 113.410th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 113.121st of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 101.012th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 11–713th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−42 Elo- Paul George left groin tightness−38 Elo
Pacers
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–25 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 8–15 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.