Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints28
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds7
Pistons- Tim Hardaway Jr.Points25
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–100
- Q411.0shot clock turnover111–100
- Q432.1Pascal Siakam defensive rebound111–100
- Q435.0Cade Cunningham misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot111–100
- Q443.0Jalen Duren defensive rebound111–100
- Q445.1Andrew Nembhard misses free throw 2 of 2111–100
- Q445.1Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 2111–100
- Q445.1Tobias Harris shooting foul110–100
- Q41:04Tyrese Haliburton defensive rebound110–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:53Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)IND 38 – 34 DET · DET 31% → 37% +7DET 31% → 37%+7 pts
- Q25:58Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Stewart assists)IND 47 – 41 DET · DET 26% → 32% +7DET 26% → 32%+7 pts
- Q25:37Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 50 – 41 DET · IND 68% → 75% +7IND 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q410:41Simone Fontecchio makes 27-foot three point shot (Isaiah Stewart assists)IND 92 – 84 DET · DET 11% → 18% +7DET 11% → 18%+7 pts
- Q46:32Tobias Harris makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotIND 96 – 90 DET · DET 12% → 19% +7DET 12% → 19%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- IND -1.5
- ML IND -125 / DET +105
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1.5
- IND 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- IND: Elo 56.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 115.5 – 114.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +22 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +45 Elo | IND 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 112.415th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 113.316th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.018th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 110.816th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 111.816th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.9 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 10–918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–21 | 22–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–18 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–1 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.