Milwaukee Bucks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints36
- Damian LillardAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Clippers- James HardenPoints40
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–127
- Q416.0Nicolas Batum defensive rebound117–127
- Q417.2Ryan Rollins misses driving layup117–127
- Q433.1Pat Connaughton defensive rebound117–127
- Q436.1Kevin Porter Jr. misses 18-foot step back jumpshot117–127
- Q41:00Tyler Smith makes 2-foot layup (Ryan Rollins assists)117–127
- Q41:11Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2115–127
- Q41:11Pat Connaughton enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo115–126
- Q41:11Tyler Smith enters the game for Taurean Prince115–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:13Gary Trent Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 82 – 79 LAC · MIL 44% → 55% +11MIL 44% → 55%+11 pts
- Q33:01James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 86 – 84 LAC · LAC 37% → 48% +11LAC 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q32:14Brook Lopez makes 29-foot three point jumper (Gary Trent Jr. assists)MIL 89 – 86 LAC · MIL 45% → 56% +11MIL 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q323.1James Harden makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 90 – 94 LAC · LAC 59% → 70% +11LAC 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q32.0Gary Trent Jr. makes 28-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 93 – 94 LAC · MIL 29% → 41% +12MIL 29% → 41%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML MIL +140 / LAC -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- LAC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 51.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.5 – 115.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +46 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +8 Elo | LAC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 109.623rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 106.63rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 109.422nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 106.42nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.6 | Pace | 99.721st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 16–87th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–22 | 28–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 16–17 | 14–5 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22 | 16–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.