Boston Celtics at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints25
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds7
Clippers- Derrick Jones Jr.Points29
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists7
- Kobe BrownRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game117–113
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime117–113
- OT0.1Celtics defensive team rebound117–113
- OT2.0Jayson Tatum blocks Kevin Porter Jr. 's 25-foot three point pullup jump shot117–113
- OT6.1Neemias Queta makes 2-foot two point shot (Derrick White assists)117–113
- OT24.1Celtics Full timeout115–113
- OT30.0Amir Coffey makes free throw 1 of 1115–113
- OT30.0Payton Pritchard enters the game for Jaden Springer115–112
- OT30.0Kobe Brown enters the game for Bones Hyland115–112
- OT30.0Jaylen Brown shooting foul115–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:40Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 90 – 89 LAC · BOS 56% → 70% +14BOS 56% → 70%+14 pts
- Q44.0Derrick Jones Jr. makes two point shotBOS 103 – 103 LAC · LAC <1% → 49% +48LAC <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT4:44Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)BOS 106 – 103 LAC · BOS 62% → 79% +17BOS 62% → 79%+17 pts
- OT56.1Derrick Jones Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)BOS 112 – 110 LAC · LAC 2% → 19% +17LAC 2% → 19%+17 pts
- OT34.1Jaden Springer makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 115 – 110 LAC · BOS 86% → >99% +14BOS 86% → >99%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -11.5
- ML BOS -700 / LAC +450
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -4.5
- BOS 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 66.5%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -481
- LAC +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 114.5 – 103.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −99 | BOS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −39, Al Horford −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +119 Elo | BOS 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 77.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 109.523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 106.63rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+9.6 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 109.622nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 106.84th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.621st of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–5 | Road vs home | 15–75th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−18 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis non-covid illness−39 Elo
- Al Horford sprained left big toe−1 Elo
Clippers
−99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–25 | 26–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–23 | 13–5 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 18–25 | 15–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.