Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints22
- Payton PritchardAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds9
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints18
- Moses MoodyAssists5
- Kevon LooneyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–85
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–85
- Q410.1Moses Moody lost ball turnover (Jordan Walsh steals)125–85
- Q414.1Moses Moody defensive rebound125–85
- Q417.1Jaden Springer misses 10-foot pullup jump shot125–85
- Q433.1Quinten Post makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)125–85
- Q444.2Neemias Queta makes 4-foot two point shot (Baylor Scheierman assists)125–82
- Q453.1Xavier Tillman defensive rebound123–82
- Q456.1Gui Santos misses 27-foot three point shot123–82
- Q41:01Lindy Waters III defensive rebound123–82
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 3 – 0 GS · BOS 75% → 80% +5BOS 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q17:05Stephen Curry makes 30-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)BOS 10 – 11 GS · GS 22% → 27% +5GS 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q16:50Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 13 – 11 GS · BOS 73% → 78% +5BOS 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q14:29Jrue Holiday makes driving layupBOS 17 – 17 GS · BOS 70% → 74% +4BOS 70% → 74%+4 pts
- Q12:01Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 24 – 18 GS · BOS 79% → 83% +5BOS 79% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML BOS -380 / GS +290
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.9%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -309
- GS +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 116.5 – 108.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1606 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −15 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +99 Elo | BOS 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 71.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 111.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.6 | Points allowed | 110.89th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.9 | Margin | +0.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 110.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 109.69th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 100.717th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3014–5 | Road vs home | 11–1018th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–25 | 20–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–23 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–24 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.