Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints38
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists7
- Alex SarrRebounds9
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints31
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–122
- Q45.1Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound114–122
- Q47.1Alexandre Sarr misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot114–122
- Q413.1Corey Kispert enters the game for Carlton Carrington114–122
- Q413.1Kyshawn George enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly114–122
- Q413.1Wizards Full timeout114–122
- Q413.1Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound114–122
- Q413.1Andrew Wiggins misses free throw 2 of 2114–122
- Q413.1Gary Payton II enters the game for Buddy Hield114–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:25Alexandre Sarr makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 79 – 74 GS · WSH 32% → 42% +10WSH 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q410:49Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)WSH 89 – 92 GS · GS 70% → 80% +10GS 70% → 80%+10 pts
- Q410:04Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumper (Carlton Carrington assists)WSH 94 – 92 GS · WSH 27% → 39% +12WSH 27% → 39%+12 pts
- Q45:18Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three point shotWSH 103 – 104 GS · WSH 16% → 30% +14WSH 16% → 30%+14 pts
- Q44:26Moses Moody makes driving layupWSH 103 – 106 GS · GS 69% → 80% +11GS 69% → 80%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- GS -13.5
- ML WSH +600 / GS -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -10
- GS 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- GS: Elo 83.1%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -636
- WSH +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 108.5 – 122.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1288 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −54 | −21 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +277 Elo | GS 83.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 86.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 85.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 111.119th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 110.89th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.1 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.3 | Offense rating | 109.820th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 109.59th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 100.817th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–15 | Road vs home | 10–1019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–23 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 16–23 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–19 | 17–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.