Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints37
- Tyus JonesAssists10
- Ryan DunnRebounds11
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints24
- Corey KispertAssists5
- Alex SarrRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–123
- Q48.2Justin Champagnie makes tip shot130–123
- Q49.1Justin Champagnie offensive rebound130–121
- Q410.1Justin Champagnie misses 1-foot tip shot130–121
- Q410.1Justin Champagnie offensive rebound130–121
- Q414.1Corey Kispert misses 24-foot three point jumper130–121
- Q416.1Grayson Allen enters the game for Oso Ighodaro130–121
- Q416.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Tyus Jones130–121
- Q416.1Wizards Full timeout130–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:08Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)PHX 5 – 0 WSH · PHX 85% → 88% +3PHX 85% → 88%+3 pts
- Q29:09Kyshawn George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)PHX 40 – 34 WSH · WSH 9% → 12% +3WSH 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q28:51Grayson Allen makes 29-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 43 – 34 WSH · PHX 88% → 91% +3PHX 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q41:06Kyshawn George makes 29-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)PHX 120 – 117 WSH · WSH 1% → 12% +11WSH 1% → 12%+11 pts
- Q445.0Devin Booker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 123 – 117 WSH · PHX 91% → >99% +8PHX 91% → >99%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -11.5
- ML PHX -700 / WSH +450
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -8
- PHX 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 78.4%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- PHX -481
- WSH +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 121.5 – 110.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1291 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | −63 | PHX: Usual rotation · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +224 Elo | PHX 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 83.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 82.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 108.325th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 122.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −14.330th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 104.030th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 117.730th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 24th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 5–1629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–25 | 15–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | — |
| Underdog | 5–10 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders | 18–21 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.