Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints28
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds13
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints24
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Jaylen BrownRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game119–115
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime119–115
- OT0.0Celtics offensive team rebound119–115
- OT0.0Payton Pritchard misses 37-foot three point pullup jump shot119–115
- OT3.0Jaylen Brown defensive rebound119–115
- OT4.1Jalen Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2119–115
- OT4.1Onyeka Okongwu enters the game for Trae Young119–115
- OT4.1Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2119–115
- OT4.1Payton Pritchard personal take foul118–115
- OT4.1Jalen Johnson defensive rebound118–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:08Trae Young makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 100 – 98 BOS · ATL 32% → 71% +39ATL 32% → 71%+39 pts
- Q429.1Jaylen Brown makes 13-foot step back jumpshotATL 100 – 102 BOS · BOS 53% → 87% +34BOS 53% → 87%+34 pts
- Q43.1Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2ATL 104 – 104 BOS · ATL 5% → 49% +44ATL 5% → 49%+44 pts
- OT2:36Trae Young makes 26-foot three pointerATL 111 – 110 BOS · ATL 26% → 52% +25ATL 26% → 52%+25 pts
- OT2:15Jaylen Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)ATL 111 – 113 BOS · BOS 47% → 74% +27BOS 47% → 74%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -9.5
- ML ATL +340 / BOS -450
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.1%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -360
- ATL +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 114.0 – 123.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +25 | −18 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −40, Al Horford −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +78 Elo | BOS 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 77.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 117.65th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 108.46th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +9.23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 108.46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.4 | Pace | 99.223rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 15–77th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−18 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis lower leg−40 Elo
- Al Horford sprained left big toe−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 17–22 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 26–14 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.