Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds10
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints22
- James HardenAssists12
- Ivica ZubacRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–116
- Q42.0Max Christie makes 2-foot driving dunk102–116
- Q43.1Christian Koloko offensive rebound100–116
- Q48.1Gabe Vincent misses 29-foot three point jumper100–116
- Q417.1Cam Christie makes free throw 2 of 2100–116
- Q417.1Clippers offensive team rebound100–115
- Q417.1Cam Christie misses free throw 1 of 2100–115
- Q417.1Dalton Knecht shooting foul100–115
- Q421.1Max Christie lost ball turnover (Amir Coffey steals)100–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:20Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAL 4 – 5 LAC · LAC 57% → 63% +6LAC 57% → 63%+6 pts
- Q18:22LeBron James makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 12 – 11 LAC · LAL 35% → 41% +6LAL 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q18:07James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerLAL 12 – 14 LAC · LAC 59% → 65% +6LAC 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q11:41James Harden makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 23 – 29 LAC · LAC 67% → 73% +6LAC 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q28:31Norman Powell makes 29-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)LAL 37 – 43 LAC · LAC 67% → 73% +7LAC 67% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML LAL +150 / LAC -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 71.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAC -161
- LAL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 106.0 – 110.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | +36 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +160 Elo | LAC 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 65.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 109.623rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 106.63rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.3 | Margin | +3.010th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 109.622nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 106.64th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.4 | Pace | 99.721st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 19th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 14–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–20 | 25–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 12–4 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 18–21 | 14–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–1 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.