Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- D'Angelo RussellPoints19
- D'Angelo RussellAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints38
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Jaxson HayesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–102
- Q42.1LeBron James defensive rebound101–102
- Q44.1D'Angelo Russell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot101–102
- Q418.1Noah Clowney defensive rebound101–102
- Q420.2Austin Reaves misses 6-foot two point shot101–102
- Q437.0Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)101–102
- Q447.0Nic Claxton defensive rebound98–102
- Q449.1Austin Reaves misses 25-foot three point jumper98–102
- Q41:02Max Christie enters the game for Jaxson Hayes98–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:33Ziaire Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)BKN 83 – 82 LAL · BKN 28% → 43% +15BKN 28% → 43%+15 pts
- Q46:47LeBron James makes 28-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)BKN 85 – 88 LAL · LAL 62% → 76% +15LAL 62% → 76%+15 pts
- Q46:32Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 88 – 88 LAL · BKN 24% → 39% +15BKN 24% → 39%+15 pts
- Q46:07Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three pointerBKN 88 – 91 LAL · LAL 61% → 76% +15LAL 61% → 76%+15 pts
- Q437.0Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)BKN 101 – 102 LAL · BKN 3% → 29% +26BKN 3% → 29%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -9.5
- ML BKN +340 / LAL -450
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4
- LAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.4 pts
- LAL: Elo 64.9%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -360
- BKN +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 103.0 – 112.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −65 | −104 | BKN: Missing Cameron Johnson −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAL: Missing Anthony Davis −85 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +107 Elo | LAL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 78.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 77.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 111.717th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 114.118th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.1 | Margin | −2.421st of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 114.323rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.2 | Pace | 99.622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–15 | Road vs home | 13–66th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−65 Elo- Cameron Johnson right ankle sprain−13 Elo
Lakers
−104 Elo- Anthony Davis left plantar fascia−85 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–19 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–1 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.