Chicago Bulls at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints35
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Josh GiddeyRebounds10
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints27
- James HardenAssists10
- Mo BambaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–99
- Q40.2shot clock turnover112–99
- Q424.2Kai Jones makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Kobe Brown assists)112–99
- Q435.1Nikola Vucevic makes layup (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)112–97
- Q448.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound110–97
- Q453.0Kobe Brown misses 27-foot three point shot110–97
- Q457.1Cam Christie defensive rebound110–97
- Q41:00Nikola Vucevic misses 25-foot three point jumper110–97
- Q41:16Jordan Miller makes 1-foot dunk (Kobe Brown assists)110–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:57Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 39 – 38 LAC · CHI 32% → 39% +7CHI 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q311:04Mo Bamba makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)CHI 50 – 53 LAC · LAC 62% → 70% +8LAC 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q37:53Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 59 – 57 LAC · CHI 36% → 45% +9CHI 36% → 45%+9 pts
- Q37:30Zach LaVine makes 23-foot three point shot (Patrick Williams assists)CHI 62 – 57 LAC · CHI 46% → 55% +10CHI 46% → 55%+10 pts
- Q36:07Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)CHI 66 – 60 LAC · LAC 31% → 40% +9LAC 31% → 40%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML CHI +190 / LAC -225
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 69.6%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- LAC -201
- CHI +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 111.0 – 116.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAC and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +25 | −35 | CHI: Missing Coby White −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +144 Elo | LAC 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 109.723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 106.53rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.2 | Margin | +3.210th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 109.820th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 106.64th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.3 | Pace | 99.621st of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 15–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+25 Elo- Coby White right ankle soreness−1 Elo
Clippers
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–22 | 26–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 13–4 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23 | 15–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–2 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.