Washington Wizards at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints24
- Jordan PooleAssists9
- Alex SarrRebounds10
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints22
- James HardenAssists13
- James HardenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–110
- Q418.2Amir Coffey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Christie assists)93–110
- Q421.1Kobe Brown offensive rebound93–107
- Q424.1Cam Christie misses 26-foot three point jumper93–107
- Q443.0Johnny Davis makes tip shot93–107
- Q443.0Johnny Davis offensive rebound91–107
- Q444.0Johnny Davis misses driving floating jump shot91–107
- Q455.1Justin Champagnie defensive rebound91–107
- Q458.1Amir Coffey misses 25-foot three point jumper91–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:40Norman Powell makes two point shotWSH 0 – 2 LAC · LAC 89% → 91% +2LAC 89% → 91%+2 pts
- Q19:24Jordan Poole makes 3-foot layup (Alex Sarr assists)WSH 4 – 4 LAC · WSH 9% → 11% +2WSH 9% → 11%+2 pts
- Q19:11Derrick Jones Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)WSH 4 – 7 LAC · LAC 89% → 92% +3LAC 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q18:20James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerWSH 4 – 12 LAC · LAC 93% → 95% +2LAC 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q17:45Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 7 – 12 LAC · WSH 5% → 7% +2WSH 5% → 7%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -14.5
- ML WSH +800 / LAC -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -13.5
- LAC 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 89.5%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -847
- WSH +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 105.5 – 120.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1278 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −70 | +39 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +373 Elo | LAC 89.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 88.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 88.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 109.623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.5 | Points allowed | 106.93rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.4 | Margin | +2.710th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.9 | Offense rating | 109.422nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 106.84th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Pace | 99.621st of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–18 | Road vs home | 15–87th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–25 | 27–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 13–5 |
| Underdog | 17–25 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 16–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.