Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Bilal CoulibalyPoints17
- Kyle KuzmaAssists5
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds9
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints29
- LeBron JamesAssists13
- Anthony DavisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–111
- Q40.0shot clock turnover88–111
- Q424.0Bronny James defensive rebound88–111
- Q424.0Tristan Vukcevic misses 2-foot two point shot88–111
- Q437.0Trey Jemison III makes free throw 2 of 288–111
- Q437.0Lakers offensive team rebound88–110
- Q437.0Trey Jemison III misses free throw 1 of 288–110
- Q437.0Anthony Gill shooting foul88–110
- Q439.1Trey Jemison III offensive rebound88–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:00Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three pointerWSH 8 – 4 LAL · WSH 16% → 20% +4WSH 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q18:40Anthony Davis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)WSH 8 – 7 LAL · LAL 80% → 84% +4LAL 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q17:19Anthony Davis makes alley oop dunk shot (Austin Reaves assists)WSH 8 – 13 LAL · LAL 86% → 91% +4LAL 86% → 91%+4 pts
- Q14:28Dorian Finney-Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)WSH 15 – 18 LAL · LAL 84% → 88% +4LAL 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q28:18Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotWSH 33 – 36 LAL · WSH 10% → 14% +4WSH 10% → 14%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -13.5
- ML WSH +600 / LAL -900
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -10.5
- LAL 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 84.0%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -630
- WSH +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 107.0 – 120.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1283 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −66 | −34 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +288 Elo | LAL 84.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 87.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 87.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.6 | Points scored | 111.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 113.818th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.2 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.3 | Offense rating | 111.714th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 114.423rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 99.322nd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–17 | Road vs home | 14–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–24 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 17–24 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 19–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.