Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jonas ValanciunasPoints23
- Jonas ValanciunasAssists3
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints29
- De'Aaron FoxAssists13
- Domantas SabonisRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–123
- Q420.0Kings defensive team rebound100–123
- Q421.0Justin Champagnie misses two point shot100–123
- Q426.1Justin Champagnie defensive rebound100–123
- Q429.2Isaiah Crawford misses driving floating jump shot100–123
- Q437.1Isaiah Crawford defensive rebound100–123
- Q441.1Justin Champagnie misses free throw 2 of 2100–123
- Q441.1Justin Champagnie makes free throw 1 of 2100–123
- Q441.1Alex Len shooting foul99–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:27Jordan Poole makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotWSH 3 – 0 SAC · WSH 7% → 10% +2WSH 7% → 10%+2 pts
- Q110:47Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 6 – 0 SAC · WSH 10% → 13% +3WSH 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q16:03Malik Monk makes 26-foot three pointerWSH 13 – 15 SAC · SAC 90% → 93% +3SAC 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q14:18Domantas Sabonis makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)WSH 15 – 18 SAC · SAC 91% → 93% +3SAC 91% → 93%+3 pts
- Q29:19Kyshawn George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)WSH 32 – 34 SAC · WSH 6% → 9% +3WSH 6% → 9%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -17.5
- ML WSH +1200 / SAC -3000
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -15
- SAC 92%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- SAC: Elo 91.8%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- SAC -1258
- WSH +1258 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.0 – 127.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1285 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −55 | +35 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +420 Elo | SAC 91.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 92.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 92.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 116.58th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 114.219th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.0 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.6 | Offense rating | 113.88th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 111.613th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Pace | 101.110th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–16 | Road vs home | 11–1220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–23 | 17–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 17–23 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.