Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Damian LillardAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds18
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints19
- Isaiah CollierAssists8
- Drew EubanksRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–110
- Q46.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound125–110
- Q410.2Kyle Filipowski misses 23-foot three point jumper125–110
- Q418.1Gary Trent Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2125–110
- Q418.1Gary Trent Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2124–110
- Q418.1Jordan Clarkson personal take foul123–110
- Q420.0Collin Sexton personal take foul123–110
- Q421.0Lauri Markkanen makes 4-foot alley oop dunk shot (Collin Sexton assists)123–110
- Q426.1Kyle Filipowski offensive rebound123–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:57Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)MIL 0 – 5 UTAH · UTAH 28% → 33% +6UTAH 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q110:33Lauri Markkanen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)MIL 3 – 8 UTAH · UTAH 28% → 33% +6UTAH 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q19:38Brook Lopez makes 29-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 8 – 10 UTAH · MIL 66% → 72% +6MIL 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q24:49Brice Sensabaugh makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)MIL 52 – 49 UTAH · UTAH 17% → 23% +6UTAH 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q24:27Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gary Trent Jr. assists)MIL 55 – 49 UTAH · MIL 77% → 83% +6MIL 77% → 83%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -8.5
- ML MIL -385 / UTAH +300
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 73.0%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -318
- UTAH +318 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 124.0 – 115.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | −17 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +173 Elo | MIL 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 77.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 77.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 111.319th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 118.527th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.5 | Margin | −7.226th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 109.421st of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 116.529th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.210th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 19th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 3–1530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–23 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–17 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–2 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.