Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints20
- Isaiah CollierAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds10
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points28
- Ja MorantAssists7
- Desmond BaneRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–125
- Q40.0(00:00) [Jazz] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)103–125
- Q49.2shot clock turnover103–125
- Q434.1Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Elijah Harkless assists)103–125
- Q445.0Zach Edey makes 24-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)100–125
- Q454.0John Konchar defensive rebound100–122
- Q456.2Zach Edey blocks Isaiah Collier 's 3-foot two point shot100–122
- Q41:00Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound100–122
- Q41:04GG Jackson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot100–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:14Svi Mykhailiuk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 5 – 2 MEM · UTAH 19% → 24% +5UTAH 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q110:27Jaylen Wells makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)UTAH 5 – 5 MEM · MEM 76% → 81% +5MEM 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q14:27Brice Sensabaugh makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 19 – 20 MEM · UTAH 15% → 19% +4UTAH 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q14:14Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)UTAH 19 – 23 MEM · MEM 81% → 85% +4MEM 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q12:15Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)UTAH 24 – 29 MEM · MEM 82% → 86% +4MEM 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -11.5
- ML UTAH +400 / MEM -600
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -8
- MEM 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- MEM: Elo 78.2%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -429
- UTAH +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.0 – 129.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | +79 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +222 Elo | MEM 78.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 85.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 84.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 123.61st of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 115.323rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.8 | Margin | +8.44th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 115.65th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 107.85th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.2 | Pace | 107.01st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–17 | Road vs home | 18–53rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–19 | 30–15 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 21–10 |
| Underdog | 22–18 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–17 | 30–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–2 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.